Greece vs Italy Prediction (1.85 Odds): Can the Azzurri Continue Their Dominance Over Greece?

Greece vs Italy Prediction (June 7, 2026) ⚽🇬🇷🇮🇹

Match Preview

Greece welcome Italy to Heraklion for an attractive international friendly that should provide a high-level tactical contest between two well-organized European sides.

The hosts have made significant progress in recent years, building a competitive squad that combines defensive discipline with emerging attacking talent. Italy, meanwhile, continue their transition with a blend of experienced internationals and exciting young players looking to establish themselves before future tournament campaigns.

Despite playing away from home, the Italians enter the match as slight favorites thanks to their superior squad depth and technical quality across the pitch. 🔥

Head-to-Head Record 📊

Italy have historically dominated this fixture.

• Total meetings: 9
• Greece wins: 0
• Italy wins: 6
• Draws: 3

The Greeks have often been difficult to break down, but Italy have generally controlled the head-to-head series over the years.

Predicted Lineups

Greece (4-2-3-1)

Vlachodimos; Baldock, Mavropanos, Hatzidiakos, Tsimikas; Kourbelis, Siopis; Masouras, Bakasetas, Pelkas; Pavlidis

Italy (4-3-3)

Donnarumma; Di Lorenzo, Bastoni, Calafiori, Dimarco; Barella, Ricci, Frattesi; Chiesa, Retegui, Zaccagni

xG & Tactical Analysis 📈

• Greece average xG: 1.35
• Greece average xGA: 0.95
• Italy average xG: 1.75
• Italy average xGA: 0.90

Greece are expected to remain compact defensively and look for opportunities through quick transitions and set pieces. The combination of Pavlidis and Bakasetas could create problems if Italy leave space behind their full-backs.

Italy should enjoy more possession and dictate the tempo through Barella and Frattesi. Their movement in the final third and ability to create overloads on the wings may prove decisive.

Projected xG

• Greece: 0.95
• Italy: 1.65

The numbers suggest a relatively tight encounter, but one where Italy generate the better scoring opportunities.

Key Players ⭐

Greece

• Vangelis Pavlidis – Main goal threat.
• Kostas Tsimikas – Dangerous from wide areas.
• Tasos Bakasetas – Creative leader.

Italy

• Nicolò Barella – Midfield engine.
• Federico Chiesa – Match-winning pace and creativity.
• Gianluigi Donnarumma – Elite goalkeeper.

Betting Prediction 💡

Main Prediction

• Italy to Win
• Estimated Odds: 1.85

Alternative Picks

• Italy Draw No Bet
• Under 3.5 Goals
• Italy to Win Either Half

Correct Score Prediction

• Greece 0-1 Italy

Greece should remain competitive on home soil, but Italy’s superior technical quality and greater attacking depth make them the most likely winners in a closely contested friendly. ⚽