Liverpool vs Chelsea Prediction, October 28, 2026: Can the Depleted Blues Survive Anfield Without Their Two Best Attackers? 🏆

Liverpool vs Chelsea Prediction: Match Preview

Liverpool welcome Chelsea to Anfield on Wednesday evening for an EFL Cup fourth-round tie that pits the competition’s most successful side against a Chelsea team in the midst of an attacking crisis. The Reds are riding a four-match winning run across all competitions, having dispatched Brighton 2-0 on Sunday, and Andoni Iraola has confirmed he “would love to win” a trophy in his first season. Chelsea, by contrast, arrive on Merseyside reeling from a 2-0 home defeat to Tottenham, a match in which Cole Palmer was sent off and João Pedro suffered a thigh injury that rules him out for weeks. Xabi Alonso’s return to Anfield as a manager could hardly come at a more precarious moment.

Match Information 📋

Match: Liverpool vs Chelsea
Competition: England: EFL Cup – 1/8-finals
Date: Wednesday, 28 October 2026
Kick-off: 20:00 GMT
Venue: Anfield, Liverpool
Our Prediction: Liverpool 2-1 Chelsea

Head-to-Head Record 📋

This will be the 202nd meeting between the clubs in all competitions, with Liverpool winning 87 and Chelsea 67. In the League Cup specifically, the record is remarkably balanced across ten previous ties, and this is the first time they have met in the fourth round. Chelsea are unbeaten in their last three matches against Liverpool (two wins, one draw) since a 2-1 Premier League defeat at Anfield in October 2024, and they are unbeaten in their last four cup visits to Anfield. However, Liverpool have won six of their last seven matches overall and have started the scoring in five of those.

Liverpool Form 🔵

Last 5: W-W-W-W-L

Liverpool’s momentum is undeniable. The 2-0 victory over Brighton was their fourth consecutive win, with Alexander Isak scoring his sixth Premier League goal of the season and Florian Wirtz impressing before being withdrawn with a minor ankle issue. Cody Gakpo has been the standout performer in this competition, scoring ten goals in the EFL Cup since 2023-24, including seven in six Anfield appearances. Iraola has confirmed there “will definitely be changes” given the looming Premier League clash with Arsenal, but insisted his side “want to be competitive” and progress.

Team News: Florian Wirtz is “quite optimistic” to feature despite his ankle knock. Dominik Szoboszlai and Víctor Muñoz are doubts, while Jeremie Frimpong, Hugo Ekitike, Conor Bradley, and Giovanni Leoni remain long-term absentees. Giorgi Mamardashvili is expected to start in goal, with Joe Gomez and Jérémy Jacquet forming the centre-back pairing.

Chelsea Form ⚪

Last 5: L-W-W-L-W

Chelsea’s season has been defined by inconsistency. The 2-0 defeat to Tottenham was their third loss in ten matches, and the performance was compounded by Palmer’s first career red card and Mike Penders’ costly own goal on his Premier League debut. Alonso confirmed João Pedro will miss “a few weeks” with a thigh injury, while Palmer is suspended. The Blues have scored 25 goals in ten matches but conceded 18, and they have kept just one clean sheet in their last eight fixtures.

Team News: Reece James and Emiliano Martínez remain sidelined after surgery, while Jamie Gittens is still out. Danny Welbeck and Estevão are expected to start in attack, with Morgan Rogers returning to one of the twin No.10 roles. Emmanuel Emegha could make his debut from the bench.

Team News & Predicted Lineups 📰

Liverpool Predicted Lineup (4-2-3-1)

Mamardashvili; Araújo, Jacquet, Gomez, Kerkez; Nyoni, Mac Allister; Ngumoha, McConnell, Gakpo; Koumas

Iraola is expected to rotate heavily with Arsenal looming. Trey Nyoni and James McConnell earn starts in midfield, while Rio Ngumoha and Lewis Koumas lead the line.

Chelsea Predicted Lineup (3-4-2-1)

Penders; Fofana, Lacroix, Colwill; Gusto, Caicedo, Lavia, Palestra; Rogers, Neto; Welbeck

Alonso is expected to retain Penders in goal despite his error against Spurs. Welbeck leads the attack in Pedro’s absence, with Rogers and Neto providing support.

xG & Tactical Analysis 📈

The statistical models give Liverpool a 46.08% win probability, with Chelsea at 31.78% and the draw at 22.14%. The Opta supercomputer is even more favourable to the hosts, projecting a 52.6% win rate. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 to Liverpool (9.19%), followed by 1-1 (8.72%) and 1-2 Chelsea (7.24%). Both Teams to Score carries a 64.08% probability, reflecting both sides’ defensive vulnerabilities and attacking intent.

The key battle will be Liverpool’s rotated attack against Chelsea’s makeshift backline. Without Palmer and Pedro, Chelsea lack their two most potent creators, placing greater burden on Welbeck and the inexperienced Estevão. Liverpool’s Gakpo, who has been electric in this competition, should exploit the spaces left by Chelsea’s wing-backs pushing forward. However, the Reds’ own defensive absences—Frimpong and Bradley—mean Ronald Araújo continues out of position at right-back, a vulnerability Chelsea may target.

Betting Analysis 💰

Liverpool are marginal favourites at 2.50, with Chelsea at 2.15 and the draw at 3.30 according to one market, though other bookmakers have the Reds closer to 1.80. Both Teams to Score at 1.60 is the standout angle given the 64% probability and both sides’ scoring records. Cody Gakpo to score anytime at 2.40 offers value given his EFL Cup record.

Final Prediction 🏁

Liverpool 2-1 Chelsea

This is a fixture where momentum and squad depth align decisively in Liverpool’s favour, but Chelsea’s recent record at Anfield ensures it will be far from straightforward. The Reds are flying, and even with rotation, Iraola possesses enough quality—Gakpo’s finishing, Mac Allister’s drive, Ngumoha’s directness—to break down a Chelsea side missing its two most influential attackers.

Chelsea will not go quietly. Their unbeaten run in cup matches at Anfield is a psychological cushion, and Welbeck’s experience offers a focal point. But the absence of Palmer’s creativity and Pedro’s finishing leaves them blunt, and Penders’ confidence must be fragile after his error against Spurs. A consolation goal feels likely, but Liverpool’s need to maintain momentum before Arsenal should prove decisive.

Prediction: Liverpool 2-1 Chelsea. Gakpo opens the scoring for the hosts, Welbeck equalises for the visitors, and Ngumoha seals the points in the second half as Liverpool advance to the quarter-finals and deepen Chelsea’s crisis.