Sturm Graz vs Celje Prediction, November 5, 2026: Can the Injury-Hit Austrians Finally Find Their Scoring Boots? 🏆

Sturm Graz vs Celje Prediction: Match Preview

Sturm Graz welcome Celje to the Merkur-Arena on Thursday evening for a Europa League league phase fixture that pits a side clinging to its unbeaten home record against a Slovenian champion still searching for its first victory. The Austrians sit 19th with four points from three matches—a goalless draw with Rennes, a 3-0 defeat at Bournemouth, and a 1-0 victory over Marseille—and have not lost at home in the competition this season. Celje, by contrast, are 29th with a single point, having lost to Bayer Leverkusen and Omonia before salvaging a 2-2 draw against Red Bull Salzburg. The sides have never met competitively, though three friendlies between 2015 and 2016 all went Sturm’s way.

Match Information 📋

Match: SK Sturm Graz vs NK Celje
Competition: UEFA Europa League – League Phase – Round 4
Date: Thursday, 5 November 2026
Kick-off: 20:00 GMT (21:00 CET)
Venue: Merkur-Arena (Liebenauer Stadium), Graz
Our Prediction: Sturm Graz 2-0 Celje

Head-to-Head Record 📋

There is no competitive history between these clubs. Three friendly meetings between 2015 and 2016 produced two Sturm victories and a draw, with the Austrians scoring nine goals across the three fixtures. That is the extent of the historical record, leaving current form and squad availability as the only reliable indicators.

Sturm Graz Form 🔵

Last 5: W-D-D-L-W

Sturm’s European campaign has been built on defensive resilience rather than attacking fluency. The 1-0 victory over Marseille was a tactical masterclass from Fabio Ingolitsch’s young side, with Oumar Diakite scoring the only goal and a defence featuring seven players aged 23 or under holding firm. However, the Austrians have scored just one goal in three Europa League matches, and their domestic form has dipped with consecutive draws against Ried and Wolfsberger AC. Otar Kiteishvili leads the scoring charts with 15 goals this season, but the playmaker is among eight injured players unavailable for this fixture.

Team News: The injury crisis is severe. Daniil Khudyakov (leg fracture), Otar Kiteishvili, Seedy Jatta, Gizo Mamageishvili, Nelson Weiper, Emran Soglo, Filip Rozga, and Leon Grgic are all ruled out. Arjan Malić is suspended after his red card, and coach Ingolitsch will also serve a touchline ban. Adam Stejskal has been signed as emergency goalkeeping cover.

Celje Form ⚪

Last 5: D-W-D-L-L

Celje arrive in Graz on a five-match unbeaten run across all competitions, including a 4-0 demolition of NK Nafta in which Mario Kvesic and Armandas Kucys both scored twice. The Slovenian champions have shown they can compete with Austrian opposition, having recovered from 2-0 down to draw 2-2 with Red Bull Salzburg on Matchday Three. However, Celje have scored just once in their last four matches when including the Leverkusen defeat, and their away form in Europe is a concern.

Team News: Celje have no reported injury concerns, with Zoran Zeljkovic expected to name the same XI that dismantled Nafta. Svit Seslar is the leading marksman with seven goals, while Kvesic and Kucys offer secondary threats.

Team News & Predicted Lineups 📰

Sturm Graz Predicted Lineup (3-4-1-2)

Stejskal; Malic, Quashie, Koller; Heil, Weinhandl, Gorenc Stankovic, Balbo; Matoshi; Seidl, Diakite

With Khudyakov out, Stejskal makes his debut in goal. Diakite returns to the starting XI after his match-winning cameo against Marseille, while captain Gorenc Stankovic anchors midfield.

Celje Predicted Lineup (4-2-3-1)

Leban; Ivansek, Zuzek, Bejger, Avdyli; Calusic; Dukuly, Seslar, Kvesic, Verbic; Kucys

Zeljkovic is expected to retain the core that beat Nafta. Seslar operates as the creative hub, with Kucys leading the line after ending his ten-game goal drought.

xG & Tactical Analysis 📈

The statistical models give Sturm Graz a 43.29% win probability, with Celje at 31.94% and the draw at 24.78%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 to Sturm (9.73%), followed by 2-1 (8.39%) and 2-0 (7.07%). Both Teams to Score carries a 54.09% probability, while Over 2.5 goals sits at 53.45%.

The key battle will be Sturm’s makeshift attack against Celje’s defensive structure. The Austrians have managed just one goal in three European matches, and the absence of Kiteishvili removes their most creative force. Celje have conceded seven goals in three league phase matches, including three at home to Omonia, suggesting Sturm will get chances. Ingolitsch has identified Celje’s technical quality but questioned their adaptation to intensive football, hinting that Sturm’s pressing game could be decisive.

Betting Analysis 💰

Sturm are clear favourites at 1.85, with Celje at 4.00 and the draw at 3.50. Under 2.5 goals is the standout angle: Sturm have scored once in three European matches, and Celje’s away scoring record is modest. Sturm to win to nil offers value given Celje’s attacking struggles and Sturm’s home defensive record.

Final Prediction 🏁

Sturm Graz 2-0 Celje

This is a fixture where home advantage and European pedigree should prove decisive, but Sturm’s injury crisis and scoring drought ensure it will be far from comfortable. The Austrians have been formidable at home in Europe, holding Rennes to a goalless draw and beating Marseille 1-0, and the Merkur-Arena crowd will demand another strong performance.

Celje will not go quietly. Their five-match unbeaten run and the memory of their 2-2 draw with Salzburg demonstrate genuine quality, and Seslar’s creativity offers a counter-attacking threat. But the gulf in European experience and Sturm’s home resilience should carry the hosts through.

Prediction: Sturm Graz 2-0 Celje. Diakite opens the scoring for the hosts, Seidl doubles the lead after the break, and Sturm’s makeshift defence holds firm to secure a vital three points that keeps their knockout-stage hopes firmly on track.