Osasuna vs Athletic Bilbao Prediction, November 7, 2026: Can the Depleted Hosts Finally Halt Their Basque Derby Misery? 🏆

Osasuna vs Athletic Bilbao Prediction: Match Preview

Osasuna welcome Athletic Bilbao to El Sadar on Saturday evening for a Basque derby that pits a side in freefall against one of the division’s most in-form teams. The hosts sit 15th with 11 points from 11 matches, having lost three of their last five, including a 2-1 home defeat to Deportivo La Coruña before the international break. Athletic, by contrast, arrive in Pamplona on a three-match winning run across all competitions, including a 2-1 victory over Real Sociedad in the Basque derby and a 4-0 demolition of Getafe. The historical record offers Osasuna a glimmer of hope—they beat Athletic 2-0 at El Sadar in May 2023—but the visitors have won 11 of their 22 league visits to this venue since 1997/98.

Match Information 📋

Match: CA Osasuna vs Athletic Club
Competition: Spain: LaLiga – Round 12
Date: Saturday, 7 November 2026
Kick-off: 17:30 GMT (18:30 CET)
Venue: Estadio El Sadar, Pamplona
Our Prediction: Osasuna 1-2 Athletic Bilbao

Head-to-Head Record 📋

Athletic’s recent dominance in this fixture is emphatic. The Lions are unbeaten in their last six LaLiga meetings with Osasuna, winning three and drawing three, including a 1-0 victory at San Mamés in April 2026 and a 1-1 draw at El Sadar in January. Osasuna’s last home victory over Athletic came in May 2023, a 2-0 triumph sealed by Ante Budimir and Lucas Torró. Across the broader history, Athletic have won 11 of 22 league visits to El Sadar since the turn of the century.

Osasuna Form 🔵

Last 5: L-L-W-L-L

Osasuna’s season has been defined by defensive fragility. The Rojillos have conceded 22 goals in 11 league matches, an average of two per game, and their most recent outing was a 2-1 home defeat to Deportivo. Ante Budimir remains the sole attacking threat with eight goals in 11 appearances, but the Croatian striker has been starved of service since Jagoba Arrasate’s return to the club in October. The midfield has been particularly affected by injuries, with Aimar Oroz, Jorge Herrando, and Romain Del Castillo all ruled out, stripping Arrasate of creativity and steel in equal measure.

Team News: Arrasate has called up 23 players, with Rubén García expected to replace Jonathan Dubasin in the attacking line. Budimir leads the line, with Moi Gómez and Iker Muñoz anchoring midfield.

Athletic Bilbao Form ⚪

Last 5: W-W-W-D-L

Athletic’s form is imperious. Edin Terzić’s side have won their last three matches, scoring nine goals and conceding just once, and their high-intensity pressing game has forced turnovers in the opposition half with remarkable consistency. Nico Williams and Iñaki Williams provide direct pace down both flanks, and their matchup against Osasuna’s makeshift full-backs is the decisive battle of this fixture. However, Athletic’s forward line is depleted: Gorka Guruzeta (ACL) and Maroan Sannadi (hamstring) are both ruled out, while Oihan Sancet faces a late fitness test.

Team News: Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta returns after injury, offering a timely boost to midfield. Robert Navarro is expected to replace Sannadi, with the Williams brothers starting on the flanks.

Team News & Predicted Lineups 📰

Osasuna Predicted Lineup (4-3-3)

Herrera; Rosier, Catena, Boyomo, Bretones; Moncayola, Muñoz, Gómez; Rubén García, Budimir, Moro

Arrasate is expected to retain the core that has served him, with Budimir leading the line and García providing the creative spark.

Athletic Bilbao Predicted Lineup (4-2-3-1)

Simón; Rincón, Vivian, Laporte, Berchiche; Berenguer, Galarreta, Gerenabarrena, N. Williams; Navarro, I. Williams

Terzić is expected to restore Galarreta to midfield after injury, with Navarro operating behind Iñaki Williams.

xG & Tactical Analysis 📈

The statistical picture reveals a stark contrast. Osasuna average 1.0 goals per game with an xG of 1.1, while Athletic generate 1.4 goals with an xG of 1.3. Defensively, the gap is wider: Osasuna concede 2.0 goals per game, Athletic just 1.0. The most likely scoreline according to APWin is 1-1 (14.07%), followed by 0-0 (9.37%) and 1-0 (8.92%). Both Teams to Score carries a 65% probability, reflecting both sides’ defensive vulnerabilities.

The key battle will be Athletic’s high press against Osasuna’s depleted midfield. Terzić’s system is built on forcing turnovers, and Osasuna’s lack of creative options—without Oroz and Del Castillo—leaves them poorly equipped to play through the press. The narrow pitch at El Sadar should suit Athletic’s pressing game, limiting Osasuna’s space to manoeuvre.

Betting Analysis 💰

Athletic are clear favourites at 2.20, with Osasuna at 3.20 and the draw at 3.30. Both Teams to Score at 1.81 is the standout angle given the 65% probability and both sides’ defensive records. Athletic to win offers the safest value, with the Lions’ three-match winning run and Osasuna’s injury crisis tilting the balance.

Final Prediction 🏁

Osasuna 1-2 Athletic Bilbao

This is a fixture where Athletic’s momentum and tactical clarity collide with Osasuna’s desperation and depleted squad, and the most probable outcome is a narrow away victory. The Lions are unbeaten in six LaLiga meetings with Osasuna, possess the Williams brothers’ pace against a makeshift defence, and arrive on the back of three consecutive wins.

Osasuna will not go quietly. Budimir’s aerial threat from set-pieces is their most reliable route to goal, and the El Sadar crowd will demand a response after the Deportivo defeat. But the gulf in form, fitness, and tactical cohesion should prove decisive.

Prediction: Osasuna 1-2 Athletic Bilbao. Budimir opens the scoring for the hosts from a corner, but the Williams brothers turn the tide in the second half as Athletic extend their unbeaten run in this fixture and deepen Osasuna’s relegation concerns.