Montenegro vs Latvia Prediction, November 12, 2026: Can the Group Leaders Finally Seal Promotion Without Their Lazio Star? 🏆

Montenegro vs Latvia Prediction: Match Preview

Montenegro welcome Latvia to the Gradski Stadion in Podgorica on Thursday evening for a UEFA Nations League League C Group 2 fixture that could see the hosts secure promotion to League B with a game to spare. The Falcons sit top of the group with 10 points from four matches, unbeaten in the campaign, and a victory over bottom-placed Latvia would all but confirm their rise to the second tier. Latvia, by contrast, are rooted to the foot of the table with a single point, already six adrift of a promotion play-off place, and arrive in Podgorica on a run of three defeats in their last four group fixtures.

Match Information 📋

Match: Montenegro vs Latvia
Competition: UEFA Nations League – League C – Group 2 – Round 5
Date: Thursday, 12 November 2026
Kick-off: 19:45 GMT (20:45 CET)
Venue: Gradski Stadion (Podgorica City Stadium), Podgorica
Our Prediction: Montenegro 2-0 Latvia

Head-to-Head Record 📋

Montenegro’s dominance in this fixture is absolute. Across five competitive meetings, the Falcons have won three and drawn two, with Latvia yet to taste victory. The most recent encounter in October 2026 ended in a 2-1 Montenegro victory in Riga, with Sassuolo midfielder Vasilije Adžić scoring twice. However, Latvia have proven stubborn visitors to Podgorica, holding Montenegro to draws in their last two visits to the Montenegrin capital.

Montenegro Form 🔵

Montenegro’s campaign has been built on attacking fluency and home resilience. The Falcons have scored seven goals in four group matches, with Adžić emerging as the surprise package after his brace in Riga. Milutin Osmajić, who has 10 senior international goals, leads the line alongside Nikola Krstović, while Stefan Jovetić provides experience in the attacking third. The hosts are unbeaten in their last four matches across all competitions, a run that includes three victories.

Team News: The hosts have been dealt a double blow. Adam Marušić has renewed a muscle injury and will miss the final two Nations League matches, having not featured since August. Stefan Lončar is suspended after his red card against Armenia, with Qarabag’s Marko Janković expected to retain his place in midfield.

Latvia Form ⚪

Latvia’s campaign has been a study in struggle. The Baltic side have scored just two goals in four group matches, with their only point coming from a goalless draw against Cyprus. Their away form is particularly concerning: three defeats in their last four road fixtures, including a 2-1 loss in Riga to Montenegro. Vladislavs Gutkovskis leads the line, but service to the forward has been sporadic at best.

Team News: Latvia are without Renārs Varslavāns, who is sidelined until the New Year with a serious knee injury, and Kristers Penkevics, who is unavailable for this international window.

Team News & Predicted Lineups 📰

Montenegro Predicted Lineup (4-3-3)

Popović; Roganović, Đurić, Savić, Gašević; Adžić, Bulatović, Janković; Jovetić, Krstović, Osmajić

With Lončar suspended and Marušić injured, Janković anchors midfield alongside Bulatović, with Adžić providing the creative spark behind the front three.

Latvia Predicted Lineup (5-4-1)

Matrevics; Jurkovskis, Savaļnieks, Toņiševs, Balodis, Cigaņiks; Daskevics, Vapne, Zelenkovs, Strods; Gutkovskis

Latvia are expected to deploy a five-man defence to contain the hosts, with Gutkovskis leading the counter-attacking threat.

xG & Tactical Analysis 📈

The statistical picture reveals the scale of Latvia’s task. Montenegro average 1.8 goals per match while conceding 1.3, while Latvia average just 0.7 goals and concede 1.5. The most likely scoreline according to the data is 2-0 to Montenegro, a prediction echoed by Spanish outlet Diario AS. Both Teams to Score – No is priced at 1.60, reflecting Latvia’s attacking impotence and Montenegro’s home defensive record.

The key battle will be Montenegro’s attacking transitions against Latvia’s deep defensive block. The hosts will dominate possession, and Adžić’s late runs from midfield should exploit the spaces Latvia leave when defending deep. Over 2.5 goals carries value, with Montenegro having scored at least twice in three of their four group matches.

Betting Analysis 💰

Montenegro are overwhelming favourites at 1.30, with the draw at 5.75 and Latvia at 10.50. Montenegro to win to nil offers the safest value given Latvia’s scoring struggles and the hosts’ need for a convincing performance. Montenegro -1 Asian Handicap at 1.60 reflects the expectation of a comfortable margin.

Final Prediction 🏁

Montenegro 2-0 Latvia

This is a fixture where the gulf in form, quality, and historical precedent aligns decisively in Montenegro’s favour. The Falcons are unbeaten in the group, have scored seven goals in four matches, and face a Latvia side with just one point and two goals to their name. Even with Marušić and Lončar absent, the hosts possess far too much firepower for the Baltic strugglers.

Latvia will not go quietly. Their two draws in Podgorica offer a sliver of hope, and Gutkovskis’ physical presence could trouble a Montenegro defence that has conceded in three of four group fixtures. But the gulf in class, combined with the Falcons’ need to seal promotion, should prove decisive.

Prediction: Montenegro 2-0 Latvia. Krstović opens the scoring for the hosts before half-time, and Adžić seals the points in the second half as Montenegro secure promotion to League B and leave Latvia staring at relegation to League D.